The Wrong Path

Everyone is afraid of Door #2

A popular major refrain of every movie is do not go down that path! do not open that door! This fear is embedded into us. But you know what, the heroes tend to manage even when opening the wrong door. And, you my friend, are the hero in your own narrative so you must rest assured things will work out.

As you start to invest, gamble, trade, and basically try to make money in a new-fangled way you are going to read books, try strategies, spend money on other’s insights…You will fast learn it’s not easy and some paths were worth not going on. But something caught your eye or inclination. That “something” will carry you onto the outlook that will make you succesful if you stick with it.

I feel that is that fractal of doing things continuously and striving for success. The pattern that you obtain is unique to you - it’s your DNA.

Today, I’m reviewing some strategies I paid for on eBay. I love the look and writing of this old time futures trader, but I can see that you could simply apply R% to one strategy and a MACD to another to get similar results, if not better. But with the time I spent on it and thinking about the “what-ifs” gives me a better appreciation of the strategy and what to expect if and when applied with real money.

Anytime you put your money on something with the expectation of a return is stressful. You are making a conscious effort and being rejected is never fun. Which is why you put in sometime for research and education in order to avoid being wrong. My goal is to put things in perspective and letting you know that it’s alright to open door #2 and to realize you’ll get out of the scary predicament. But you got to stick with it.

So the strategy I paid for is a take on smoothing out price movements and the expectation is for the trend to continue based on the smoothed direction. For me this makes a lot of sense as in my day-day life I kind of remember how prices for what I’m buying for my business should be and kind of the trend to gauge if I’m overpaying or getting a deal. With a smoothed average using futures, I’m using some leverage so if I’m wrong it’s going to cost me some money.

I know for a fact that once a trend occurs I will make money. But what I do not know is how long it will take using this specific moving average until the profits starts to kick in. So in common language: how much will it cost me in trading expenses until the profits start to kick in.

Today, I asked “Will a MACD do the trick?” and after some brief spot checks it seemed a decent replacement. But now the real hard part starts as I need to decide if I will commit funds to this.