What's Going On?
The SP500 and BTC are very strong
Lets review the headlines
US top secret document leak
They know everything
France is in love with China
Ukraine in a potentially long war that could lead to WWIII
Banking crises (yet bank stocks are higher)
Recession fears is inclining people to a Fed pivot (lower rates again)
Commercial real estate plunge
Saudia Arabia and Iran - Bromance
Lets review markets
Stock market has remained strong
Precious metals surged
Crypto is hitting 1 yr highs
US Dollar is weakening fast
In the big picture, when you are very wealthy or control the resources of a large corporation or institution, you need to know where the big footsteps are leading so you can minimize the vicissitudes of dramatic change. Right or wrong, you are going to make decisions on big movements that occur. You could care less as to what’s occurring next week.
So it’s important to look at headlines and see if these “dramatic” events are trend setting, or just a droplet in lake. The problem is when you see so many headlines at once, it’s hard to process all of it at once. The second issue is that you may feel you are not qualified to understand. But you must remember “It doesn’t take a weatherman to tell you where the wind is blowing”
Fortunately, when it is big footsteps you have time to analyze. I think it’s important. If you just look at the market, and don’t think about the big picture, you may miss, overlook, or not conceptualize a very big opportunity.
The cool thing about 2023 is that you don’t necessarily need a huge team of analysts to get an opinion now. Heck, judging from what they are saying about the information leak, it wasn’t that sophisticated a job yet it is the US secrets. If it’s not secret in the US Pentagon then why shouldn’t the big trends?
Let’s start today with the Pentagon leak:
The papers show our intelligence gathering against Russia and its mercenary group which would help them warn Ukraine about pending attacks. So Russia could now alter the way it communicates its intent.
The paper also shows its ability to keep tabs on allies such as S. Korea, Israel, and Ukraine. Ukraine apparently wants to strike into Russia which could trigger a bigger war. Israel is apparently having mid life crisis and their secret service is funding protests against the governments intention to alter the way the judiciary is formed.
South Korea doesn’t want to be involved in Ukraine as Russia can retaliate by supporting North Korea, which is not waiting and already helping Russia.
Mission creep tends to occur in governments as they will not reverse policy decisions unless forced to. These leaks show that the pressure and intent of the US is to keep the momentum going against Russia. Russia is aligned with Iran and possibly Turkey (a Nato member) and the domestic turmoil in Israel may signal weakness that the Iranians may want to exploit. If they do, this may open another front in this geopolitical landscape.
So where do you park your money? And in what form do you park it?
In Currency? In Bonds? In Hard Assets? In Stocks? In Real Estate?
and… Where?
So far, the market is saying not the US Dollar and most definitely Gold.
Warren Buffett’s company is saying Japanese equities.
As for markets we have invested in, it’s Friday and the trends of the stocks we have followed of note have done well. So why do anything different, except take notes for future opportunities?
Have a pleasant day
